U.S. Veteran Makes Bold Predictions About XRP vs. Bitcoin

A U.S. veteran has made bold predictions surrounding XRP, Bitcoin, and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.

Patrick L Riley, a former U.S. combat medic turned market commentator, recently shared two bold projections. Taking to X, he suggested that the current conflict involving Israel and Iran will not last four to five weeks, and further argued that XRP will overtake Bitcoin in market value. The pundit failed to provide any context for his forecasts.

Key Points

• While XRP sits as the fourth-largest crypto asset by market cap, Patrick Riley believes it has the potential to surpass Bitcoin.
• Currently, XRP has a market cap of $86.9 billion, while Bitcoin’s valuation sits at $1.448 trillion, indicating that BTC is over 16x larger.
• For XRP to overtake Bitcoin, its price would have to rise 1,580% to a new peak of $23.69, considering the current circulating supply of 61.1 billion tokens.
• Besides Riley, other market commentators such as Coach JV have also predicted that XRP could overtake Bitcoin someday.
• Riley also believes the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, which began on Feb. 28, would not last 4-5 weeks, disputing projections by President Donald Trump.

XRP’s Struggles Below Bitcoin

While talks around XRP overtaking Bitcoin have often made their way to crypto discussions, the current market positioning makes Riley’s latest comment especially bold. 

Specifically, XRP currently has a market cap of $86.9 billion, which places it fourth among the largest assets, not even third. Bitcoin leads the market with $1.448 trillion, followed by Ethereum at $254 billion. BNB sits just ahead of XRP with $89.3 billion.

Before XRP can even challenge Bitcoin, it must first move past BNB and then Ethereum. XRP has occasionally flipped BNB several times. However, it last overtook Ethereum in December 2019. Since then, it has not reclaimed second place. Even after its rally in November 2024, XRP has only moved back and forth between third and fourth position as it competes with BNB.

What XRP Needs to Overtake Bitcoin

Notably, XRP has a circulating supply of 61.1 billion tokens and currently trades at $1.41. To move past BNB’s $89.3 billion market cap, the price would need to rise by just 3.5%, reaching $1.46. This represents a small jump compared to what would be necessary next.

To overtake Ethereum’s $254 billion valuation, XRP would have to climb 194%, reaching $4.157. Meanwhile, to finally surpass Bitcoin’s $1.448 trillion market cap, XRP would need to surge 1,580%, taking its price to $23.69. 

While rallies to these prices may be possible in theory, it remains unlikely that XRP could rally by such margins while the rest of the market, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, stays stagnant.

Notably, this would not mark the first time Riley made this statement. Last month, he said that if Bitcoin fails to break $150,000 this year and reclaim its twelve-year trend line, it could fall back to $1,000. He then predicted that, whether BTC breaks $150,000 or not, XRP would become the number one crypto within six years.

Others Share Similar Views

Interestingly, Riley is not the only one who believes XRP could someday overtake Bitcoin. In August 2025, finance coach Coach JV said he believes XRP will take the top spot by 2030, with Bitcoin in second place. 

In November 2024, market and political commentator DOQ said XRP was on track to overtake Bitcoin by February 2025, possibly even earlier, depending on Bitcoin outflows. As of March 2026, his prediction failed to materialize, and XRP remains far below Bitcoin in market value.

Also, in March 2025, Jacob King, CEO and founder of SwanDesk, reacted after the United States confirmed it had added XRP to its crypto stockpile. He said the world’s largest economy had chosen XRP over Bitcoin for its strategic reserve and argued that XRP would surpass Bitcoin in market cap with full certainty.

The largest economy in the world just sidelined Bitcoin and chose XRP for its strategic reserve.

Bitcoin maxis had El Salvador, but even they ditched it and moved on. There’s a reason maxis spend every breath hating on XRP—they’re jealous.

By the way, XRP’s market cap will…

— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) March 2, 2025

The Iran-Israel Conflict

Meanwhile, the second part of Riley’s recent prediction focuses on the Israel-Iran conflict that began on Feb. 28. Notably, the United States and Israel launched joint strikes targeting Iran’s leadership, nuclear and missile programs, and proxy forces.

On the first day, large-scale strikes hit Tehran and other locations. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died along with other senior officials. Iran responded by launching more than 170 missiles and drones at Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. The conflict has since endured to the fifth day.

Reported deaths stand between 787 and over 1,045 in Iran, including civilians. Israel has reported around 11 to 12 deaths, while at least 6 U.S. service members have died. 

President Donald Trump initially said the operation would likely last four to five weeks, sometimes describing it as four weeks or less, but he also said the U.S. could extend the campaign if needed. Riley’s statement challenges this timeline.