Nearly 50% of Bitcoin Supply Now in Loss: This Marked the Bottom in the Last Three Cycles

The Bitcoin supply in loss has now risen close to the 50% baseline, a metric that marked the bottom for Bitcoin during the last three bear markets.

Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) has stayed on a downward path since the start of the year, adding to the decline that first began in October 2025. Since then, the market has erased more than $1.2 trillion in value, as investors search for signs of a possible bottom. 

Amid the uncertainty, recent data shows that nearly half of Bitcoin’s supply is now in loss, indicating that these coins now trade below their cost basis at the current price of around $66,500. Interestingly, this metric marked the bottom for Bitcoin each time in the past three cycles.

Key Points

• Bitcoin has fallen 47% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025, as prices slide to the $66,000 level.
• Amid the decline, nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s supply is now below cost, mirroring conditions that marked past cycle bottoms.
• Historical bottoms occurred at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015, when 50% of the supply saw losses.
• The Fear and Greed Index currently reads 11, indicating Extreme Fear, similar to past bottom periods.
• UTXOs in profit have dropped from 99.89% in October 2025 to 56.4% today, indicating that most BTC tokens moved now face unrealized loss.

48.7% of Bitcoin Circulating Supply Now Below Cost Basis

Market analyst Crypto Rand was the first to highlight this development. He recently noted that 50% of Bitcoin’s total supply now sits at a loss, pointing out that the last three times this happened, it marked the exact bottom of the cycle.

Data from CryptoQuant corroborates the claim. Specifically, 48.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, or about 9.7 million BTC, currently sits below its cost basis at today’s price of around $66,500. This comes as Bitcoin has dropped 47% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025.

In past cycles, similar conditions appeared when Bitcoin traded at $15,479 in November 2022, $3,122 in December 2018, and $152 in January 2015. Each of those price levels later proved to be the bear market bottom, and strong recoveries followed every time.

Back then, large portions of supply sitting at a loss showed that many weak hands had already sold. As heavy losses forced capitulation, selling pressure eased, giving the market room to recover.

Fear Levels Match Previous Bitcoin Cycle Lows

Meanwhile, the market mood also shows deep pessimism. The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 11, which signals Extreme Fear. This reading is much lower than the 20 recorded during the November 2022 bottom and matches the 11 level from early December 2018, when Bitcoin formed its low during that cycle.

Also, on-chain data indicates that the share of UTXOs in profit has fallen from 99.89% in early October 2025 to 56.4% today. This figure also stood above 99% in November 2024. As recently as January 2026, this figure was still 84.6%, showing how quickly profitability across the network has dropped.

For the uninitiated, UTXOs in profit measure how many coins are worth more now than when they last moved. In simple terms, it shows how many holders are currently in profit. The steep decline suggests that pain has spread across the market in a short period of time.

Many analysts believe that when losses peak and forced sellers exit, the market often gets closer to a turning point. While this signal does not particularly guarantee a bottom, history shows that this area has mattered before.

Other Analysts See Signs of a Turnaround

Elsewhere, pseudonymous analyst Moustache also believes the bottom may already be in for both Bitcoin and altcoins. He noted that Bitcoin recently recorded its second-lowest weekly RSI in history, highlighting it as one reason behind his conclusion. 

Meanwhile, trader HK highlighted a price range between $60,000 and $42,000 as the most likely zone for Bitcoin to form its bottom. He argued that this area represents a place where experienced investors quietly build positions while others panic, citing historical data.