Here Is the Price XRP Needs to Fall to Before Reaching $200

XRP recently crashed after retesting a pivotal EMA on the weekly timeframe, but the historical structure points to a potential recovery to $13.

The crypto market has continued to face sustained declines since the fourth quarter of 2025, with the global crypto market cap losing $2 trillion over the last five months. XRP has not escaped the onslaught, now down 62% from its all-time high of $3.66. 

Notably, market data indicates that the downturn actually coincided with XRP’s collapse after a failed retest of a pivotal exponential moving average (EMA) on the 1-week chart. While XRP has continued to decline after this failed retest, historical data indicates a potential 1,030% rise to $13 could play out. 

Key Points

• XRP’s Price Decline Amid Broader Crypto Market Losses: XRP has fallen 62% from its all-time high of $3.66, as the global crypto market cap has lost $2 trillion since Q4 2025.
• Rejection at Critical EMA and Potential Reversal: A failed retest of a pivotal exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly chart coincided with XRP’s decline, but historical data suggests a possible recovery to $13.
• Significance of the Mysterious EMA: Market analyst EGRAG Crypto points out that a critical EMA since 2018 has acted as resistance or support; failing to break above it during retests has historically led to steeper declines.
• XRP’s Failed Breakout and Future Projections: XRP’s attempt to break above the EMA in late 2025 failed, leading to further declines; however, a possible rebound could push XRP to $2.2 before another drop to $0.78.
• Historical Context Supporting the Bullish Potential: The projected $13 target represents a 1,030% increase from recent lows, similar to XRP’s past surge from late 2020 to 2021 after a previous EMA retest failure.

The Mysterious Yet Critical EMA

This suggestion came from a market analysis shared by notable chartist EGRAG Crypto as XRP continues to struggle below $1.5. The chartist emphasized that his analysis centers around a critical EMA on the 1-week chart that has served as an important technical indicator since XRP dropped from the 2018 peak.

EGRAG noted that once market participants successfully identify this EMA, they would come to understand the unique pattern that XRP has followed since 2018. However, the analyst kept the actual EMA mysterious, with details revealed only to subscribers.

While the EMA remains a mystery, data from his chart shows how it has acted as a critical dynamic resistance or support level depending on the structure. Notably, whenever XRP retests the EMA during a downtrend and fails to break above it, what follows is typically a steeper crash. 

XRP’s Failed Breakout

In the current cycle, XRP slipped below the EMA in November 2025 amid the ongoing downtrend. After this breakdown, the price continued to witness downward pressure until it hit a low of $1.82 in late December 2025. The recovery that emerged in early January 2025 pushed XRP to $2.41, allowing it to retest the EMA as it attempted a break back above it.

However, this breakout attempt failed and has now led to steeper declines for XRP. Specifically, XRP collapsed to a floor of $1.15 on Feb. 6 before recovering to the current price of $1.42. EGRAG expects the recovery to pick up momentum, potentially pushing XRP’s price to a high of $2.2 before another pullback takes XRP to $0.78.

This $0.78 level aligns with a historically important horizontal trendline identified by EGRAG as the Binance lowest wick. From here, the analyst believes XRP could stage a full-blown upsurge toward the $13 target. After $13, XRP could drop again to $3.3, aligning with the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle that has lingered since XRP started trading. However, the rebound from here could take XRP to $200.

Historical Context

Notably, the $13 target aligns with historical data. For context, this $13 price represents a 1,030% increase from XRP’s lows of around $1.15, which it recently recovered from this month. 

Interestingly, after XRP dropped from a failed retest of the pivotal EMA in Q4 2018, it eventually soared from late August 2020 to $1.96 by April 2021. This marked a 1,030% rise from previous lows. EGRAG believes a similar 1,030% increase could ensue this time.