XRP Slips Below Average Holder Cost Basis, Leading to Realized Losses: What’s Next?

XRP has dropped below its average holder cost basis, as holders move from realized profit to losses amid sustained market weakness.

After climbing to $3.66 in July 2025, XRP has fallen more than 62% and now trades at $1.36. The token has also lost 25.90% since the start of the year. As price weakness deepened, on-chain data confirms that the market has moved from locking in profits to locking in losses.

Key Points

• XRP has plunged over 62% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66 and currently trades at $1.36, down 25.90% this year.
• Glassnode data shows SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96, indicating a change from 16% average profit to 4% average realized loss.
• The 1.0 SOPR level represents aggregate holder breakeven, and XRP has now broken below this threshold.
• A similar SOPR breakdown between September 2021 and May 2022 aligned with a drop from about $1.30-$1.40 to $0.30-$0.35.
• Key levels to watch include $1.00 as structural support, with $0.70-$0.80 and $0.50 as potential lower support zones if weakness continues.

Why SOPR Matters for XRP

Notably, Glassnode confirmed the current condition in a recent post. The firm showed that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) using a 7-day EMA dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 now. This move means holders who transfer coins on-chain now realize losses on average.

For the uninitiated, the SOPR tracks whether coins moved on-chain generate profit or loss. When SOPR stays above 1.0, holders sell at a gain compared to their purchase price. When SOPR falls below 1.0, holders sell at a loss. The 1.0 level marks the average breakeven point across the network.

Glassnode explained that XRP’s SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 now. At 1.16, holders realized an average profit of 16% on transferred coins. Meanwhile, at t 0.96, they realize an average loss of about 4%. The 30-day EMA chart shows the metric slipping under the 1.0 line, confirming that XRP now trades below the average holder cost basis.

When SOPR drops under 1.0, market behavior changes. Many short-term holders rush to exit positions. Additionally, some long-term holders step in and absorb supply, and fear grows as more investors accept losses. In past cycles, assets often moved sideways for months after SOPR stayed below 1.0.

XRP’s 2025 Rally and Distribution Phase

Historical data from the chart also shows how the SOPR reacted favorably when XRP entered a strong rally from late 2024 through mid-2025. During this run, the 30-day EMA SOPR climbed above 1.10 and reached the 1.15-1.16 area. At the same time, XRP broke above $1 and surged past $3, reaching $3.65 in July 2025.

SOPR readings above 1.10 showed that holders locked in heavy profits during that rally. Each push above 1.10 matched periods where investors sold into strength. Notably, the chart shows distribution while the price traded between $3.00 and $3.60.

However, after July, both price and SOPR turned lower. As XRP fell, SOPR slid toward 1.0 and then broke below it. This break marked the change from profit-taking to loss realization.

Similarity to the 2021/2022 Period

Glassnode compared the current position to the market conditions between September 2021 and May 2022. Specifically, in September 2021, XRP traded around $1.30 to $1.40, aligning with SOPR readings above 1.0. However, prices collapsed in Q4 2021 and into early 2022, leading to a drop in the SOPR.

During that period, the XRP price saw a downturn and reached roughly $0.30 to $0.35 by mid-2022. As a result, SOPR stayed below 1.0 for an extended time, and the price did not bounce right away. Instead, XRP entered a long downward phase before finding stability.

What Comes Next for XRP?

History shows that markets often create long-term opportunities when SOPR stays below 1.0, but they rarely recover overnight. If the current pattern follows the 2021/2022 path from the July 2025 peak, the market may not settle until later this year.

Right now, the data shows that distribution has ended and capitulation has started. The price must hold important support above $1 and allow profitability to rebuild. If SOPR regains and sustains levels above 1.0, the market could push back into expansion.