$4T JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Now Looks More Attractive Than Gold

While Bitcoin has collapsed 56% against gold since August 2025, JPMorgan insists the premier crypto asset now looks more attractive than gold.

Bitcoin and gold have moved in different directions over the past seven months. Specifically, since August 2025, Bitcoin has lost nearly 40% of its value, falling from about $115,000 to $69,900 today. Over the same period, gold surged by more than 46%.

This divergence shows in Bitcoin’s value relative to gold. In August 2025, 1 BTC equaled 32 ounces of gold. Today, the ratio has dropped to 14 ounces, meaning Bitcoin has lost about 56% of its value when measured against gold. Despite this decline, JPMorgan argues that the imbalance has strengthened Bitcoin’s long-term investment appeal.

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s value against gold has fallen from about 32 ounces in August 2025 to roughly 14 ounces today, representing a 56% drop.
• However, JPMorgan says Bitcoin looks more attractive now than gold, suggesting its risk-adjusted appeal has improved.
• On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market value would need to reach about $266,000 per coin to match private-sector investment levels in gold.
• The bank notes that Bitcoin trades below its estimated $87,000 production cost, a level that has historically acted as a soft price floor.

JPMorgan Sees Strength in Bitcoin’s Long-Term Risk Profile

JPMorgan disclosed these views in a recent note, suggesting that Bitcoin’s position relative to gold has improved after months of extreme divergence. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the bank’s quantitative strategist, highlighted gold’s strong outperformance since October 2025 and the sharp increase in gold’s volatility as factors behind this change.

According to the bank, this has altered the risk-adjusted comparison between the two assets. Specifically, the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped to 1.5, representing the lowest level ever recorded. 

Meanwhile, JPMorgan also noted that, on a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise to the equivalent of $266,000 per coin to match the level of private-sector investment currently held in gold.

Market Headwinds Weigh on Crypto Sentiment

JPMorgan acknowledged that several headwinds have pressured crypto markets in recent weeks. Notably, the weakness across broader risk assets, combined with a correction in gold and silver, has weighed on crypto assets. 

However, despite these pressures, the bank observed that liquidation activity remained more restrained than in the previous quarter. JPMorgan highlighted smaller deleveraging moves in perpetual futures markets and steadier positioning in CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. 

Nonetheless, spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to record outflows, losing $6.435 billion worth of capital since November 2025. This confirms that the negative sentiment has spread across both institutional and retail investors.

Bitcoin Trades Below Its Production Cost

JPMorgan also highlighted that Bitcoin currently trades well below its estimated production cost of $87,000. For context, the price has dropped below $70,000 to $69,900 at press time. Historically, the $87,000 level has acted as a soft price floor, suggesting that long-term downside risk may remain limited.

Panigirtzoglou also explained that the recent contraction in stablecoin supply shows a delayed response to the broader decline in total crypto market cap, not necessarily a wave of investor exits.

The bank emphasized that these structural factors confirm that Bitcoin’s long-term risk-adjusted potential has improved. From its perspective, the latest pullback has pushed Bitcoin into a more attractive valuation zone.

Bitcoin Undervalued Against Gold

JPMorgan’s latest assessment aligns with earlier views from both the bank and external market analysts. For context, last October, JPMorgan already described Bitcoin as undervalued relative to gold. 

More recently, crypto market veteran Michaël van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin now trades at a deeper discount against gold than when Bitcoin last traded at $152, citing the BTC/XAU Z-Score. The BTC/XAU RSI also confirmed this undervaluation.

Dimon’s Skepticism

JPMorgan’s position stands out, considering its leadership’s long-standing skepticism toward Bitcoin. In the past, CEO Jamie Dimon has dismissed Bitcoin as a “pet rock” and reiterated his opposition to the crypto sector. 

Despite these views, the bank took steps into the market in May 2024 by serving as an authorized participant in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, including products launched by BlackRock, and by investing in them. Last May, Dimon confirmed that JPMorgan clients could buy Bitcoin despite his personal skepticism.