VanEck Forecasts Market-Beating Returns for Bitcoin in 2026

Bitcoin has struggled this year, lagging several major asset classes and falling short of the lofty expectations many investors had entering the market.

Despite hopes that the world’s largest cryptocurrency would deliver strong returns, performance has been muted.

However, VanEck believes the weakness may be temporary. In its newly released 2026 outlook, the asset manager argues that Bitcoin could be positioned for a meaningful rebound in the years ahead.

Bitcoin Lags Nasdaq Despite Inflation-Hedge Narrative

At the beginning of the year, many investors viewed Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation. That thesis has yet to play out in market performance.

Instead, Bitcoin has significantly underperformed U.S. equities. VanEck estimates the cryptocurrency has trailed the Nasdaq 100 by roughly 50% year-to-date.

David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, pointed to this widening gap as a potential opportunity. Historically, he noted, such divergences have often preceded periods of relative outperformance.

Liquidity Constraints Weigh on Crypto Markets

VanEck attributes much of Bitcoin’s recent weakness to broader financial conditions. Tighter liquidity and a reduced appetite for risk have weighed heavily on digital assets across the board.

Nevertheless, the firm remains confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Schassler emphasized that Bitcoin has historically responded sharply when liquidity cycles reverse.

Consistent with that view, VanEck has continued to build exposure. Schassler confirmed the firm has been adding to its position during the downturn.

Monetary Expansion Favors Scarce Assets

This approach aligns with VanEck’s broader macroeconomic thesis. The firm expects governments to rely increasingly on monetary expansion as fiscal pressures mount.

Over time, such policies could erode the value of traditional currencies and redirect investors toward assets with a finite supply. In that environment, VanEck sees both gold and Bitcoin as potential beneficiaries.

Schassler described the two assets as safeguards against ongoing currency debasement, each offering protection through scarcity.

Gold’s Rally Seen Extending Further

Gold has already responded to these dynamics. According to VanEck, the metal is up more than 70% this year, with prices hovering near $4,492 per ounce. The firm expects gold to approach $5,000 next year.

Schassler said the rally reflects sustained investor demand and believes the momentum could continue as macroeconomic uncertainties persist.

Beyond precious metals, VanEck is also constructive on natural resources, which it characterizes as being in a quiet but durable bull market.

Rising infrastructure demand across artificial intelligence, energy transition, robotics, and re-industrialization sectors is driving the trend.

Schassler referred to these commodities as “old-world” assets, noting that they are increasingly forming the backbone of the evolving global economy.