Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, has identified the level that, if lost, would confirm Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a bear market.
The veteran analyst disclosed this in a post on X today on the back of the panic that has followed Bitcoin’s latest downward trend. For context, BTC has witnessed three consecutive intraday gains since hitting a high of $107,465 on Nov. 11 and is on track to record a fourth one amid a discouraging 4.68% drop today alone.
Notably, since Nov. 11, the firstborn cryptocurrency has declined over 10%, currently trading for $95,139, as it battles the bears to maintain the $95,000 support level. As a result of this downtrend, Bitcoin has lost over $200 billion from its market cap since Nov. 11, having relinquished the $2 trillion valuation mark.
Bitcoin Not in a Bear Market Until It Loses $94K
With these struggles, investors have rightly entered a panic mode, with the fear and greed index (FGI) now at 16 (extreme fear). Despite this, Ki Young Ju believes the market has still not entered the cyclical bearish phase as some have suggested.
He called attention to the Bitcoin Realized Price UTXO Age Bands, specifically highlighting the 6 to 12-month band. For the uninitiated, this metric shows the average buy price of different holder groups sorted by coin age. It helps analysts identify which age groups are in profit or loss to judge bullish or bearish conditions.
Ki Young Ju has suggested that the cost basis of investors who bought BTC between 6 and 12 months ago is especially important in determining whether Bitcoin has entered a bear market. Notably, this figure currently stands at $94,635, representing the average price at which this group of investors procured their BTC tokens.
At the time of Ju’s disclosure, Bitcoin changed hands at $99,620. He noted that as long as the BTC price remains above the 6 to 12-month band cost basis at $94,635, the bear market has not slipped in. “Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level,” the market analyst said. Currently, BTC is just a 1.1% drop away from losing $94,000.
Industry Leaders Remain Unfazed
Meanwhile, amid the panic, some industry leaders have called for calm. For instance, Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao recently called attention to the persistent trend involving investor panic when prices go sideways. He implied that each time this happens, regardless of the level of panic, the market always bounces back.
Expectedly, Bitcoin permabull and Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor is unfazed. Speaking with CNBC, he called attention to the fact that Bitcoin has had around six drawdowns in history. Notably, it has always recovered.
We are ₿uying.pic.twitter.com/6g11E9G6pO
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 14, 2025
He pointed out that BTC has grown 50% a year on average over the past half a decade, outperforming gold and other asset classes. “We all want to go to the Moon, but if you ride the rocket, you gotta prepare to pull the G’s,” he said.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
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