Michael Saylor’s Strategy Has 70% Chance of Joining SP 500 by December

Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-centric company, Strategy, may soon join the S&P 500 index, according to a new report from 10X Research. 

The firm estimates a 70% probability that Strategy will join the index by December 19, 2025. The outlook is due to a projected $3.8 billion gain from its Bitcoin holdings in the upcoming third-quarter earnings report.

Strategy is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, which could serve as a major catalyst for S&P 500 inclusion. A profitable quarter would strengthen its eligibility based on profitability, market capitalization, and trading volume.

The firm also reported that about $18 billion in investor losses have already been absorbed during the market correction, while volatility and trading activity are starting to rise again.

Crypto Valuations and Market Stress

Notably, 10X Research’s outlook for Strategy comes amid wider concerns around digital asset treasuries. Several firms, including Bitmine, Metaplanet, Sharplink Gaming, and DeFi Development Corp, saw their market net asset value (mNAV) dip below the key threshold of 1.

An mNAV ratio above 1 enables firms to issue new shares to buy more digital assets. On the other hand, a ratio below 1 effectively halts further accumulation. Strategy’s mNAV drop has raised doubts about its capital expansion ability, though its upcoming earnings could help restore confidence.

What Comes Next

If Strategy reports the expected Bitcoin-driven profit this quarter, it could mark a historic milestone — the first Bitcoin-focused corporation to enter the S&P 500. As 10X Research put it:

“Capitulation always feels like the end until it quietly marks the beginning.”

Essentially, while Bitcoin volatility is rising and investor sentiment is at a low, Michael Saylor’s big Bitcoin gamble may be reaching its most crucial moment yet.