Global economic output will top $100 trillion for the first time next year. China, however, will need a bit longer to reach the top of the world’s economies.
That’s according to a report by the British consultancy Cebr, which predicted China will supplant the U.S. as the world’s top economy in dollar terms in 2030. As Reuters noted, that’s two years later that the projection in last year’s World Economic League Table report.
India, meanwhile, will overtake France next year and Britain in 2023 to reclaim its spot as the sixth-biggest economy in the world, the Cebr report stated, per Reuters. Germany is on track to surpass Japan in terms of economy output in 2033, with Russia becoming a top 10 economy three years later. Indonesia could win the ninth place on the list in 2034.
“The important issue for the 2020s is how the world economies cope with inflation, which has now reached 6.8% in the U.S.,” said Cebr Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams, according to the report. “We hope that a relatively modest adjustment to the tiller will bring the non-transitory elements under control. If not, then the world will need to brace itself for a recession in 2023 or 2024.”
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That 6.8% figure represented the highest inflation rate in almost 40 years.
“These are frighteningly high inflation numbers, the likes of which we haven’t seen for decades,” Decision Economics Chief Global Economist and Strategist Allen Sinai told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) earlier this month.
At the moment, inflation is being fielded by a strong economy, which is considered a positive.
“We have tremendous spending by consumers,” Sinai told WSJ. “A lot of people are getting hired. Demand is huge. Monetary policy remains very easy, and fiscal stimulus has no precedent in history.”
Inflation has helped contribute to a rise in pessimism about the economy. Forty percent of people said they had a gloomy view of the economy this fall, up from 32% in the spring.